Would You Buy All of the Bitcoin in the World for $25?
The recent debacle at FTX and the broader selloff in cryptocurrencies over the past year have us thinking a lot about our investment discipline and why we believe in owning productive assets. What makes for a good investment strategy? In our view, the simple answer is to buy productive assets. No doubt there are a…
Discounted Cash Woes
Discounted Cash Woes It’s earnings season on Wall Street, an opportunity for investors to peer into the latest financial results of publicly traded companies. When Amazon reported earnings on October 27th, the stock dropped about 20% the following day. Joe Weisenthal at Bloomberg quipped that after looking at their numbers, “back-of-the-envelope math would suggest that…
Quarterly Client Letter: Q3 2022
We have to get supply and demand back into alignment and the way we do that is by slowing the economy. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell 09/21/22 Press Conference The Stock Market and Speculation Deflation The stock market closed the 3rd quarter at the low for the year. As measured by the S&P 500 (with…
CHIPS+ in Semiconductor Supply Chains
In light of the passage of the CHIPS+ act and recent news about tensions between China and Taiwan, I’d like to shed some light on microchip manufacturing trends in the US and around the world. The strength of the semiconductor supply chain is a national security issue akin to ensuring a strong US energy supply.…
Economic Tug of War
Economic Tug of War On Wednesday August 10th, the stock market rallied on news that inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), may be starting to cool down. The YoY increase in CPI for July of 8.5% was down from the 9.1% print for June, a welcome change in direction and a lower…
Stock Review: Booking Holdings
Stock Review: Booking Holdings Broad stock market indices have been under pressure through the first half of 2022. As the indices slide (see the chart below), we often look to our individual stock holdings for clarity and confidence in our long-term allocations to risk assets. Directly owning businesses with strong balance sheets and healthy free…
The Macro Mood
The Macro Mood Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index) was touching levels not seen in the U.S. since the early 1980s. While most people have and will continue to be hit by rising prices, at the start of the year I was anticipating that decelerating economic growth, easing…
Stocks Don’t Always Go Up
On December 27, 1999, Microsoft closed the day at $59.56 per share (split-adjusted). When the dot-com bubble burst in the ensuing months, it ultimately took 17 years (until October of 2016) for Microsoft’s stock price to regain the high from 1999. At that fateful peak in 1999, shares in the enterprise software behemoth traded hands…
Where Does the Market Go From Here?
Where Does the Market Go From Here? Wall Street strategists, economists, and market gurus are in the process of sharpening their pencils and publishing market forecasts for 2022. These forecasts often include year-ahead price targets on major indices like the S&P 500. Forecasting short-term market returns is a futile exercise and we would recommend that…
The Price Is Never Right
“We must look at the price system as such a mechanism for communicating information if we want to understand its real function…” F.A. Hayek, The Use of Knowledge in Society The word “inflation” is on the tip of everyone’s tongue. Aggressive monetary and fiscal policy interventions in response to the Covid-19 pandemic and an unprecedented…