Stock Review: Booking Holdings
Stock Review: Booking Holdings Broad stock market indices have been under pressure through the first half of 2022. As the indices slide (see the chart below), we often look to our individual stock holdings for clarity and confidence in our long-term allocations to risk assets. Directly owning businesses with strong balance sheets and healthy free…
The Macro Mood
The Macro Mood Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index) was touching levels not seen in the U.S. since the early 1980s. While most people have and will continue to be hit by rising prices, at the start of the year I was anticipating that decelerating economic growth, easing…
Stocks Don’t Always Go Up
On December 27, 1999, Microsoft closed the day at $59.56 per share (split-adjusted). When the dot-com bubble burst in the ensuing months, it ultimately took 17 years (until October of 2016) for Microsoft’s stock price to regain the high from 1999. At that fateful peak in 1999, shares in the enterprise software behemoth traded hands…
Where Does the Market Go From Here?
Where Does the Market Go From Here? Wall Street strategists, economists, and market gurus are in the process of sharpening their pencils and publishing market forecasts for 2022. These forecasts often include year-ahead price targets on major indices like the S&P 500. Forecasting short-term market returns is a futile exercise and we would recommend that…
The Price Is Never Right
“We must look at the price system as such a mechanism for communicating information if we want to understand its real function…” F.A. Hayek, The Use of Knowledge in Society The word “inflation” is on the tip of everyone’s tongue. Aggressive monetary and fiscal policy interventions in response to the Covid-19 pandemic and an unprecedented…
A Window into the Economic Recovery
A Window into the Economic Recovery It can be instructive to zoom in on a business and use “micro” economic data to take a pulse on broader “macro” economic trends. We own one business in our model portfolio* – Visa – that provides a particularly interesting view into global economic activity by using this framework.…
Stock Review: VMware
“There is no doubt that the cloud is one of the most significant platform shifts in the history of computing… However, as industry experience with the cloud matures — and we see a more complete picture of cloud lifecycle on a company’s economics — it’s becoming evident that while cloud clearly delivers on its promise early on…
A New Kind of ARK
The Backstory Paccar, a global manufacturer of medium and heavy-duty trucks with annual sales of around $20 billion, is one of the stocks in our Model Portfolio*. We were intrigued to see Paccar’s stock (PCAR) up +10% on January 21, 2021. With a standard deviation of daily returns of 1.6% over the past 10 years,…