Quarterly Client Letter: Q4 2024
I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men. –Sir Isaac Newton The past year was one in which “animal spirits” were unleashed in a way the economy has not seen in four years. An NFIB small business optimism index released in November showed its highest reading since June 2021.…
Taking Stock of Market Returns
Taking Stock of Market Returns What do annual returns normally look like in the stock market? If the S&P 500 were to hold its current levels through year-end, we’ll have just experienced two back-to-back years of greater than 25% gains in the stock market. Calendar year returns like this must be exceedingly rare, right? Going…
Quarterly Client Letter: Q3 2024
Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to reduce the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by ½ percentage point. This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate growth and inflation…
Quarterly Client Letter: Q2 2024
Quarterly Client Letter: Q2 2024 When you find a truly wonderful business, stick with it. Patience pays, and one wonderful business can offset the many mediocre decisions that are inevitable. -Warren Buffett We were pleased to see that the five most profitable companies of the Fortune 500, based on profits generated in 2023, were, in…
Quarterly Client Letter: Q1 2024
Therefore, we are prepared for a very broad range of interest rates, from 2% to 8% or even more, with equally wide-ranging economic outcomes — from strong economic growth with moderate inflation (in this case, higher interest rates would result from higher demand for capital) to a recession with inflation; i.e., stagflation. Jamie Dimon, Chairman…
Stock Review: Fortinet (FTNT)
Stock Review: Fortinet (FTNT) We recently added Fortinet (FTNT) to our model stock portfolio*. FTNT is a leading cybersecurity company based in the U.S. with over 700,000 customers worldwide. In 2023, they generated $1.7 billion of free cash flow on revenues of $5.3 billion. FTNT is characteristic of the businesses that we like to own: They have an incredible…
What Is Money For?
What Is Money For? Shelby Cullom Davis got his start in the stock market in the early 1940’s on the heels of the Great Depression. He bought equities on the cheap at a time when other investors had given up on the stock market and just as the United States emerged as the world’s most…
Quarterly Client Letter: Q4 2023
“I think that a life properly lived is just learn, learn, learn all the time.” Charlie Munger, 2017 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting Investing in financial markets is a constant education. A year ago, a Bloomberg survey of economists forecasted a 65% probability of recession for 2023. As the year progressed, there were plenty of reasons…
You Only Have to Get Rich Once
You Only Have to Get Rich Once Charlie Munger recently appeared on the Acquired Podcast. Needless to say, we are fans of Munger and recommend listening to the full interview. The interviewers asked Charlie what advice he would give to young people today. Charlie was, unsurprisingly, quite modest in his response. He spent considerable time…