Investment Management

Would You Buy All of the Bitcoin in the World for $25?

The recent debacle at FTX and the broader selloff in cryptocurrencies over the past year have us thinking a lot about our investment discipline and why we believe in owning productive assets. What makes for a good investment strategy? In our view, the simple answer is to buy productive assets. No doubt there are a…

Discounted Cash Woes

Discounted Cash Woes It’s earnings season on Wall Street, an opportunity for investors to peer into the latest financial results of publicly traded companies. When Amazon reported earnings on October 27th, the stock dropped about 20% the following day. Joe Weisenthal at Bloomberg quipped that after looking at their numbers, “back-of-the-envelope math would suggest that…

Quarterly Client Letter: Q3 2022

We have to get supply and demand back into alignment and the way we do that is by slowing the economy. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell 09/21/22 Press Conference The Stock Market and Speculation Deflation The stock market closed the 3rd quarter at the low for the year.  As measured by the S&P 500 (with…

Economic Tug of War

Economic Tug of War On Wednesday August 10th, the stock market rallied on news that inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), may be starting to cool down. The YoY increase in CPI for July of 8.5% was down from the 9.1% print for June, a welcome change in direction and a lower…

Stock Review: Booking Holdings

Stock Review: Booking Holdings Broad stock market indices have been under pressure through the first half of 2022. As the indices slide (see the chart below), we often look to our individual stock holdings for clarity and confidence in our long-term allocations to risk assets. Directly owning businesses with strong balance sheets and healthy free…

The Macro Mood

The Macro Mood Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index) was touching levels not seen in the U.S. since the early 1980s. While most people have and will continue to be hit by rising prices, at the start of the year I was anticipating that decelerating economic growth, easing…

Stocks Don’t Always Go Up

On December 27, 1999, Microsoft closed the day at $59.56 per share (split-adjusted). When the dot-com bubble burst in the ensuing months, it ultimately took 17 years (until October of 2016) for Microsoft’s stock price to regain the high from 1999. At that fateful peak in 1999, shares in the enterprise software behemoth traded hands…

Where Does the Market Go From Here?

Where Does the Market Go From Here? Wall Street strategists, economists, and market gurus are in the process of sharpening their pencils and publishing market forecasts for 2022. These forecasts often include year-ahead price targets on major indices like the S&P 500. Forecasting short-term market returns is a futile exercise and we would recommend that…

Stock Review: VMware

“There is no doubt that the cloud is one of the most significant platform shifts in the history of computing… However, as industry experience with the cloud matures — and we see a more complete picture of cloud lifecycle on a company’s economics — it’s becoming evident that while cloud clearly delivers on its promise early on…

ESG Investing: The Peak Perspective

ESG Investing: The Peak Perspective We believe the rising popularity of ESG (Environment, Social, Governance) investing strategies creates additional opportunities to have honest conversations with our clients about their financial goals and the strategies that are available to achieve those goals. While it is indeed a worthy endeavor to align an investment strategy with one’s…